I am not a financial expert, by any stretch of the imagination. But I am a 46 year old man who has paid attention to such things for most of my adult life, and I'd certainly consider my knowledge as superior to any and every "Expert" currently working in Government and running our economy.
Given my caveat - don't make any financial moves based on my 2 cents alone - do your own research.
Here's a summary of a few items that has me coming to the conclusion that the jetliner is in a full dive, under power, and every day that passes makes it less likely we'll pull out of the dive for even a short respite.
You have all seen the counter-intuitive drop in gold and silver given the real world conditions that should have those numbers rising - gold should be over $2k per ounce and silver should be over $40, given the real state of the world economies. You have read the links over at NCRenegade that David has been providing. (Here is a related piece from David)
This morning Denninger posted his assessment of the Philly Fed report, which shows new orders and inventories dropping (meaning that companies are not bothering to replace current inventories of their widgets because they do not see an increase in future orders).
Metals represent tangible work. When businesses are buying metals, it is to build widgets. You can "trust" metals more than most other sectors (especially if you refuse to look at the speculative games) to be a true indicator of things to come.
Here's a significant marker to watch: Copper. Copper is a fundamental metal that is a very good indicator of near and mid-term future industrial activity.
The last few days it has been hanging in the 3.20/lb range.
In my personal matrix of "What is the economy going to do next" I have a $3.00 warning flag on copper - if it drops below $3 I expect it to immediately begin dropping through that floor and that, to me, spells real trouble.
Keep in mind - it is only one indicator. But when combined with the larger picture and when one connects dots, the conclusion is No Joy.
If copper drops below $3, look for many other aspects of the economy to drop on fears.
And the fears are justified...
Kerodin
III
